घरेलू शेयर बाजारों में वर्तमान सप्ताह की शुरुआत शानदार तेजी के साथ हुई जो इस सप्ताह के दुसरे दिन भी देखने को मिली | आज निफ्टी,सेंसेक्स और अन्य प्रमुख सूचकांक हरे निशान में खुले और देखते ही देखते बाजार में रियल्टी, वित्तीय और निजी बैंकों के शेयरों में चौतरफा खरीदारी शुरू होने के कारण सेंसेक्स 482 अंको की जबरदस्त तेजी के साथ 37,536 के स्तर पर और  निफ्टी 133 अंको की तेजी के साथ 10,301 पर बंद हुए | दोनों में 1% से अधिक की तेजी देखने को मिली | मिडकैप इंडेक्स 0.50% और स्मॉलकैप इंडेक्स 1% से अधिक मजबूत हुए |

                बाजार की इस तेजी को लोकसभा चुनावों के कार्यक्रमो के एलान हो जाने के  चुनाव से पहले की तेजी के रूप में देखा जा रहा है क्योंकि पिछले 1999 और 2009 के लोकसभा चुनावों से पहले के दो महीने की अवधि में बाजार में 7 से 37% तक का उछाल आया था | जबकि 2014 के चुनावों से पहले के दो महीने में बाजार में 11% की तेजी देखने को मिली थी | बाजार के जानकारों की माने तो निम्न कारणों से आगे भी तेजी रहने की संभावनाओ से इंकार नही किया जा सकता है |

    पुलवामा हमले और एयर स्ट्राइक के बाद भारत – पाक सीमा पर तनाव कम होने से बाजार में घरेलू और विदेशी निवेशकों का विश्वास लौटने लगा है |

    विदेशी फंडों के लगातार निवेश से रूपये को मिली मजबूती आगे भी रह सकती है |

    हाल में भारतीय बाजार में विदेशी पोर्टफोलियो निवेशकों (FPI) का रुझान बढ़ा है | विदेशी निवेशक भारतीय बाजार का माहौल सकारात्मक रूप से देख रहे है, जिसकी वजह से निवेशक भारतीय बाजार में निवेश कर रहे हैं |

    यदि इतिहास के संकेतों को मानें तो साल के मार्च और अप्रैल में रिस्क-रिटर्न अनुपात सकारात्मक रहता  है | पिछले 10 साल में 8 बार बाजार ने सकारात्मक रिटर्न दिया है | इस दौरान इसका औसत रिटर्न 6% से अधिक रहा है | ऐसे में इन दोनों महीनों में निवेशकों के लिए मुनाफा कमाने का मौका हो सकता है |

    वर्ष 2018 के जनवरी में मिडकैप शेयर शिखर पर पहुंचने के बाद जबर्दस्त रूप से गिरने है,अब मिडकैप  बाजार संभलता हुआ दिखाई देने लगा है | वैल्यूएशन कम होने के कारण मिडकैप शेयर निवेशकों को फिर आकर्षित कर रहे हैं जिससे अच्छे शेयरों में खरीदारी देखने को मिल सकती है |

    साल 1999 एवं 2009 के लोकसभा चुनावों से पहले के दो महीने की अवधि में सेंसेक्स ने 7 से 37 फीसदी तक की छलांग लगाई थी |  2014 के चुनावों से पहले के दो महीने में बाजार में 11% की तेजी आई थी |

    अनुमान लगाया है कि आगामी लोकसभा चुनावों के नतीजे निर्णायक रह सकते है | शेयर बाजार को प्रधानमंत्री नरेंद्र मोदी के सत्ता में लौटने की उम्मीद है | इसका असर आने वाले समय में शेयर बाजार में दिखाई दे सकता है | वर्तमान में शेयर बाजार के जानकर और विशेषज्ञ भारतीय बाजार के प्रति आश्वस्त है तथा बाजार में आगे भी तेजी रहने की सम्भावना जता रहे है |

    लोकसभा चुनावों में किसी भी पार्टी/गठबंधन को स्पष्ट बहुमत नहीं मिलने पर बाजार में भारी मंदी आ सकती है और सेंसेक्स के 32,000 से 30000 तक और निफ्टी 10000 के स्तर के निचे भी फिसल सकता है |





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